*Since publication, President Joe Biden has announced he is withdrawing from the presidential contest. You can read what he said here.
Will Joe Biden call it quits today, as so many party insiders suggest – or will he stick it out and face off against Donald Trump in November? Democrats have been defecting from Team Biden in ever-increasing numbers since the disastrous debate performance of June 27, and just this week multiple media reports cited unnamed sources claiming the president does, in fact, plan to step down – perhaps even as early as this weekend.
All the while, the Biden campaign affirms the incumbent has no plans of stepping aside, and the DNC plans to have delegates meet virtually in early August to confirm him as the nominee before the convention. Who’s telling the truth? Will he really stay in the race? And how will that decision affect Biden’s own legacy and the party in general?
Should He Stay or Should He Go Now?
Much ink has been spilled debating the question of whether President Biden will remain in the race. With two conflicting narratives, it’s tempting – and, some might argue, only logical – to believe the man himself. Certainly, that would be the simplest answer: Nameless “party insiders” under the cover of anonymity tell news agencies that Biden is planning to bow out and that he’ll most likely do it today, Sunday, July 21. The president, on the other hand, says he isn’t quitting and no one can push him out. So there we have it, straight from the horse’s mouth, as the saying goes.
However, as Liberty Nation News Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner pointed out, the campaign can’t announce a future date for when its candidate is quitting the race. Once Biden or his staff says they’re planning to do so on this date or in so many days, that very announcement supersedes the planned event, effectively ending the campaign before the candidate – or the party hoping to have a replacement already in place – is ready.
This late in the game the more important question might be whether he should end his campaign. The clock is ticking, and the longer the president waits to withdraw, the harder things will be for his replacement. In fact, if he waits long enough, he’ll actually do significant harm to his party’s electoral chances – more so, perhaps, even than he could by staying in. At least with Biden as the official nominee, the Democratic Party will have a candidate running for president on the ballot in every state. July 9 saw the first – Georgia – pass its deadline for the party to replace nominees. Next on the list are North Carolina on August 2 and Ohio on August 7. The DNC confirmed Friday that delegates will meet virtually between August 1 and August 7, with the exact date to be determined by July 26. If they confirm Biden, Democrats have a candidate on the ballot nationwide. If, however, he does withdraw and the delegates still meet to confirm someone else, they’ll have already lost those three states.
Neither Biden nor any replacement seems likely at this point to win Georgia, North Carolina, or Ohio – so one might argue that the party has little to lose by missing those deadlines. But should they fail to finalize a nomination in early August, it’ll be handled at the regularly scheduled Democratic National Convention. That runs from Monday, August 19 (at which point seven states would no longer be in play for a replacement) through Thursday, August 22 (when the number grows to 14). The list grows more rapidly as time passes. By the second debate between Biden and Trump, currently scheduled for September 10, should the incumbent stay in that long, 40 ballots would be off limits to a replacement candidate. The longer he waits to drop out, the safer it becomes for the party if he simply stays in.
Passing the Torch or Opening the Convention?
Now, assuming it isn’t too late to “pass the torch,” as many have urged him to do, what would that process look like? It depends largely on how Biden and the DNC handle Vice President Kamala Harris. Should Biden step down and endorse her as the headline act – and should the DNC play ball and nominate her along with some replacement VP – it may be an easier pill for the voters to swallow than casting her aside and going with a whole new ticket entirely. She has served as Biden’s second in command throughout his presidency, and she stood by him even as others called for his withdrawal. That kind of loyalty has its appeal. And, of course, there’s an argument to be made for the power of name recognition.
On the other hand, Harris has been lambasted by conservatives and progressives alike for her performance – just like Biden – and her approval rating sits right around the same level as his. Ironically, the name recognition factor could work against her. Harris plus some new VP would be the easy choice – perhaps even the obvious one – but it might not be the winning choice. And all the ballot access issues would remain. While her name currently appears as an option nationwide, it’s as vice president under Biden’s presidency. Harris for president and some other name in her current slot will require changing ballots just the same as it will if the DNC chooses a whole new ticket.
Then there’s that alternative: an open convention. Many won’t like the first woman of color VP being cast aside – especially if it’s for a couple of old white men. It’ll cost votes from the party denizens obsessed with identity politics. Yet still this might be a better option than running a candidate seen by many on both sides of the aisle as unqualified and incompetent, despite her recent rebranding by the left-wing media in hopes she step up to replace her boss.
In an open convention, delegates once pledged to Biden would be unbound by his withdrawal and could choose any nominee they so choose – including Harris. It would need to be done by the end of the convention, on August 22. But would that new team be able to pick up enough support to win despite missing the deadlines to appear on more than a dozen ballots?
Biden has been asked to withdraw by many of the party’s power players as well as much of the rank and file in the name of “securing his legacy” as a statesman on par with George Washington rather than throwing away the election and perhaps even destroying the party. At this point, however, his legacy may already be secured – and, certainly, if he drops out too much later, it will be.
That legacy, however, is a disaster for the Democratic Party, even if not quite its destruction. Should he remain in the race and lose, he’ll be the guy who gave the election to Trump by staying in beyond the point that it was clear he couldn’t win. Should he drop out – now or later – and his replacement loses, he’ll still be the guy who gave the election to Trump either by dropping out at all or by waiting too long to do so. In any case, Biden has a decision to make, whether it can save the party and his “legacy” at this point or not, and all eyes are on him today and in the coming weeks.
