Many Democrats have called for Joe Biden to end his campaign for re-election and step aside. The president, however, assures America he won’t be pushed out and that he’ll beat Donald Trump once again. One of those assertions seems certain – the other, however, is rather dubious. And that presents a problem for the Democratic Party.
As the Democratic National Convention draws nigh (August 19-22), folks are beginning to wonder if the president’s delegates will remain loyal and “in good conscience” declare him the official nominee. Among those wondering, it seems, is the president himself.
A Sign of Panic: The Loyalty Check
The president’s aides are reportedly calling individual delegates in an attempt to gauge their loyalty to Joe Biden. The campaign itself, of course, denies it. “No outreach from the campaign itself is currently happening,” one of the president’s advisers answered when asked about these calls. But several delegates told a reporter for Politico that they had been called by people identifying themselves as part of the “Biden-Harris delegate operation team” – including one who shared a screenshot of the call log, which showed the campaign’s name on the caller ID.
“Do you understand what being a pledged delegate means,” the caller asked one person before moving on to: “Do you have any potential disagreements with the president?” Another reported being asked: “Is there any reason you couldn’t or wouldn’t support the president at the convention?” Some were asked more general, vague questions, like, “Do you have any concerns?”
This clear sign of panic stands out starkly against the president’s own confidence that he’ll both run and win – not to mention his denial that the party is split between supporting him and replacing him. But why? Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee – and he has far more delegates than he needs to make sure he’s on that main stage with Trump in November, right?
Biden Might Have Cause for Concern After All
As it turns out, the incumbent may have cause for concern regardless of his superior count. A group of a few dozen or so delegates are allegedly putting together a letter urging the DNC to change the rules to make the nomination by secret vote so that they can be free to vote their conscience rather than sticking to their pledge. And while each of these delegates told Politico they don’t want to break their commitments, one did admit to looking to consult election lawyers.
So, could the delegates betray Biden at the convention even if he doesn’t step down? Unfortunately, the best answer there is right now seems to be a solid “maybe.” As the president has noted, he overwhelmingly won the primaries. He has a whopping 3,896 of 3,949 pledged delegates. He needed only 1,976 to win, but capturing about 99% of the total certainly didn’t hurt his case. There are also 739 superdelegates who don’t necessarily have to vote for him, but they only get a say if the first ballot doesn’t result in a winner – and, of course, it almost certainly will. As Philip Klein wrote for National Review on June 28, “even if every one of them wanted to oust Biden, it wouldn’t make a lick of difference.”
But who are these almost 4,000 delegates, so many of whom now seem to be worried the man they’re pledged to just can’t win? Generally speaking, they’re party loyalists. Biden loyalists, one might even say. A mass defection is not expected. However, this isn’t the electoral college in the general election; there are no legal penalties for those who don’t vote as they’re pledged to during the convention. Take that in conjunction with the precise language of the rules, and it’s entirely possible some could cross that line “for the greater good.”
Under DNC rules stretching back to 1984, delegates shall “in all good conscience vote for the person they were selected to represent.” Does the “in good conscience” clause allow delegates to break with tradition and select someone other than the candidate they’re bound to when that candidate seems unable to beat Donald Trump? Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, says it might. In an interview with CNN, Kamarck explained that, since the good conscience rule took effect, this sort of situation hasn’t come up. So there’s no legal precedent, and it all seems very much up for interpretation.
As odd or, perhaps, even silly as it may sound, many leftists really believe the narrative that Donald Trump is the biggest threat to democracy since … well, ever, apparently. He’ll be a dictator on day one and completely destroy the United States and, if left to his own devices, likely the whole world. Biden, once the champion America needed, is no longer up for the fight. If he’s the Democratic pick come November, Trump wins and it’s Armageddon (or Ragnarök, for fans of the Norse ending).
In light of the literal end of the world that so many anti-Trumpers seem to actually expect, would it not be in good conscience to break the bond to Biden and pick a new champion who can defeat the Donald? It would go against long-standing tradition, but it’s certainly possible. You see? A solid maybe. Can Democrats pull off a win in November if their presumptive nominee is replaced – even with his VP – at the convention, just a couple of months prior to the election? That’s more of a probably not, and that’s a perfectly respectable reason for panic in the president’s campaign and across the Democratic Party.
