This week (June 13), President Joe Biden will attend a G7 meeting in Italy to coordinate with his peers the international response to current events. Or at least that’s what the press releases say. In reality, the era of Globalist First politics appears to be waning, and, with it, the notion that any group of nations should be deciding domestic policy.
The summit comes hot on the heels of the European Union elections that saw not one but potentially two major governments fall to the populist right. It is in this wake that the group of seven leaders must determine just how much influence they can risk expending before a similar blowback ensues. Let’s consider the precarious positions of those with a more globalist inclination.
The Real French Press
President Emmanuel Macron of France saw his party lose massively in the EU elections to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally. Le Pen stood against Macron twice for the presidency and is the hot favorite to win when the incumbent’s term ends in 2027. Her party decimated Macron’s, earning more than twice the vote share and forcing the president to call for a snap national election.
This does not mean that Macron will be stepping down but rather that his party must vie for the parliamentary seats in the national government. If he loses – which the EU results suggest is a real possibility – he will be unable to pass any legislation for the next three years without the support of Madame Le Pen’s so-called “far right” members.
Germany Falters
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ Social Democrats came in third behind the center-right Christian Democrats and, notably, the AfD – Alternative for Germany Party. The AfD is described as a “far-right” party and over the last few years has enmeshed itself in German politics to the point where it is the main opposition.
This is not merely an embarrassment for Scholz; it represents a potential collapse of his governing coalition. German political partnerships are common and relatively stable, but his grouping encompasses three parties rather than the customary two, meaning his pals in government could see him as more of a liability than an asset.
A collapse could result in the AfD becoming the powerbrokers in the Bundestag.
Italy and the G7
Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is the exception in the G7. She is the only attending leader to have been consistently labeled as “far right” by the world’s media. Her Brothers of Italy party won a staggering victory in the EU elections, cementing her power base back home.
“I am proud that Italy will present itself to the G7, to Europe, with the strongest government of all,” Meloni said. “This is something that has not happened in the past but is happening today, it is a satisfaction and also a great responsibility.” And – while relishing the position of being significantly more popular than her counterparts – she added:
“It’s a spur for [the government] to move forward. Italians are giving us a loud and clear message to go ahead with our work … and if possible with greater determination.”
Indeed, the recent election results suggest that she is in a unique position.
And What of the UK?
While the United Kingdom is no longer in the European Union, it remains a member of the G7 and has its own electoral crisis to deal with. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap general election to be held on July 4 this year. The opposition Labour Party is polling at more than double Sunak’s Conservative Party and will – almost certainly – be forming the next government. But this is not because the policies of the left-leaning Labour have suddenly become popular. Rather, it is that the Tories have failed to deliver on their pledge to reduce legal and illegal immigration.
Nigel Farage (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Into the fray steps the mastermind of Brexit, Nigel Farage.
Farage is returning to frontline politics this election and – if polling is correct – his Reform Party (nee Brexit Party) is just two points behind the Conservatives. Due to the concentrations of support across the 650 constituencies that make up the British Parliament, Reform will win few seats, even if it earns more individual votes than Sunak’s party. However, success in this election could position Reform as the official party of opposition when the next election cycle comes around.
Sunak’s confidants have denied rumors that he will step down before the election, even though such a move could stave off the outright collapse of his party. He attends the G7 as the de facto outgoing PM.
The Rise of the Right
The New York Times rationalized the result of the elections, stating that despite the major gains for parties they deem “far-right,” business as usual is underway:
“Even so, the radical right-wing wave dreaded by the European political establishment did not fully materialize; the center of European Union politics held.”
While technically correct, the spirit of the message is somewhat different. In fact, the center did hold but the left collapsed, pushing the overall leaning of the 720-seat parliament toward the ideological right. In almost every sense, it was a rejection of the progressive tilting of the institution. Indeed, the only reason that the European People’s Party (a center-right coalition comprising various nations) maintained its majority is that it tacked further right in its policies and positions on immigration to counter the growing populist threat.
Beyond Europe
If one assumes this is merely a European phenomenon, one would be sorely mistaken.
Canada will be holding its general election in October next year, and early polling indicates that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to be ousted by Conservative firebrand Pierre Poilievre. It has been more than one year since Trudeau’s Liberal Party came out ahead in a national poll. It seems Trudeau’s days are numbered.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, posted a new polling low on June 10, dropping to just 21% approval. He faces a scheduled party leadership race which – based on his current trajectory – he is sure to lose.
Biden Not Exempt
Just 25% of Americans believe the country is on the “right track” under Joe Biden’s leadership, a figure echoed by his popularity, which currently sits underwater by 16 points – not a great position for someone hoping to win another term in office. On every one of the top “issues of concern” for voters, Biden places second behind Donald Trump. From immigration to the economy, it seems the public prefers the last guy.
So what does this mean for the G7 summit?
With the exception of Meloni, the leaders of these countries are in a bad way politically, with either themselves or their parties (or both) rejected by the people they represent. And yet they will attend this meeting with all the pomp and circumstance of grandees determining the future for a world that has determined they are surplus to requirements.
Will they approach the deliberations and planning with humble hearts and an understanding that they are potentially headed for the door? Or will it be hubris and grandiose visions of a globalist future? If history is any judge, the smart money is on the latter.
