President Joe Biden on Sunday, July 21, officially pulled out of the 2024 race, leaving a slew of issues that need to be rectified and remedied before the Democratic National Convention on August 19. While the president cast his weighty endorsement upon VP Kamala Harris, the long-promised “transition” may not be quite so simple. And if initial reactions to the Biden withdrawal are any rubric of things to come, pitfalls aplenty await.
Joe Biden Faces the Democrat Music
In what has turned out to be a politically fatal reveal, the June 27 debate between Biden and former President Trump sparked a wave of worry among the Democratic Party faithful. Discussions over Mr. Biden’s cognitive ability went mainstream, and the normally Biden-friendly Fourth Estate was forced to admit that which a swath of the American public already new to be true.
It is wildly unlikely that leading Democrats and the media at large were unaware of the president’s condition, but the whipping away of the curtain for all the world to see heralded a faux shock that culminated in calls for him to step down. Indeed, the vociferousness and swiftness with which they mounted an anti-Biden campaign suggests the barely concealed anger was more at the exposure of their duplicity rather than anything else.
Former Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, current Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), made their feelings known on the Biden 2024 candidacy. And yet, it wasn’t until former President Barack Obama went public that the fat lady began her vocal exercises.
“It has been the greatest honor of my life to serve as your President,” Biden wrote. “And while it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” Shortly after his historic announcement, President Biden took to X to signify who should next wear the crown. He posted:
“My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.”
A Tricky Process for Harris
The anointment is not necessarily a simple passing of the torch, however. Considering the weight that Obama still wields within the Democratic Party, his official statement on Joe Biden’s decision contained a glaring omission. He complimented Biden on his record in office and congratulated him on delivering the nation from the Trump presidency with his 2020 win; but there was not a single mention of the VP.
In fact, while senior party leadership seems to be coalescing around Ms. Harris, there are significant hurdles to be overcome. There are two main pathways to securing a new nominee that seem likely.
A Virtual Vote: Talk had already been ripe of locking up Biden’s nomination by holding a virtual vote of the almost 4,000 delegates before the convention. With Harris hoping to win the nomination, party leadership could start rallying these “pledged” delegates as soon as today and get them to back the new frontrunner.
An Open Convention: Not seen since the bloody Chicago convention of 1968, this process would involve delegates putting forward a nominee, with that name only being accepted with the support of 300 delegates from at least six states. Theoretically (although unlikely) this means as many as eight candidates might be on the table. If a candidate earns a majority of votes in the first round, that person becomes the nominee, if not, it moves to a second round where the Superdelegates would likely enter the fray in a “brokered” convention.
If Harris cannot win in the first round, it would be akin to a public airing of dirty laundry. Notably, in the 1924 Democrat convention, it took 103 rounds of voting to settle on John Davis, who lost to Calvin Coolidge in a 35-state landslide.
Flies in the Anointment Ointment?
Multiple outlets are reporting that former Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (registering as an independent in May 2023) is thinking about getting in on the contest. As a senator from deep red West Virginia, he has the political bona fides of working across the aisle and of voting against notable aspects of the Biden administration agenda. His recent flirtation with a presidential bid under the No Labels vehicle was seen as a serious threat to both Democrats and Republicans.
Sen. Joe Manchin (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
According to Manchin advisor Jonathan Kott, the 77-year-old is considering re-registering himself as a Democrat in a bid to win the nomination. Life moves pretty fast, as the fictional movie character Ferris Bueller once noted, and politics, it seems, moves even faster. On Sunday morning, before the Biden announcement, Mr. Manchin was doing the talk show rounds when he said he would not seek a spot on the Democrat ticket, insisting that “We’ve got a lot of deep people on the bench to conserve, and they have proven their mettle by being in an executive position. Give them a chance to rise.”
Later that same day – but still before Biden’s withdrawal – he said that he favored an “open process” to determine who should replace the president.
Independent candidate and former Democrat, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was quick to hold a press conference in the wake of Biden’s announcement in which he said that the 2024 election was now a “two-man race.” He lambasted Kamala Harris for failing to distinguish herself from the administration she serves and accused the party of backing Harris because “it’s the easiest way to hold onto the money.” He also noted that he “would certainly listen to the party elders if they came to me.”
Trump and Vance Respond
GOP nominee Donald Trump took to Truth Social to set out his opinions. He wrote:
“Crooked Joe Biden is the Worst President, by far, in the History of our Nation. He has done everything possible to destroy our Country, from our Southern Border, to Energy Dominance, National Security, International Standing, and so much more. He was annihilated in an Earth Shattering Debate, and now the Corrupt and Radical Democrats are throwing him overboard. He was not fit to serve from the very beginning, but the people around him lied to America about his Complete and Total Mental, Physical, and Cognitive Demise. Whoever the Left puts up now will just be more of the same. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”
Trump also asked, “Who is running our Country right now? It’s not Crooked Joe, he has no idea where he is. If he can’t run for office, he can’t run our Country!!!” This question was echoed by his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, even before the announcement. Vance posted on X, “If Joe Biden ends his reelection campaign, how can he justify remaining President? Not running for reelection would be a clear admission that President Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally fit enough to serve as Commander-in-Chief. There is no middle ground.”
Meet the New Poll, Same as the Old Poll
The big question bubbling just below the surface is what would a Harris vs. Trump head-to-head look like in terms of polling. As it happens, such surveys have already been done, and while not as numerous, a trend is already in place.
According to Real Clear Politics’ average of polls, Trump holds a 1.7% national lead over Kamala Harris, which stretches to five points in a five-way race (including Kennedy, Jill Stein, and Cornel West). Although swing state polling is currently light on the ground, surveys from Georgia also hand Trump a five-point advantage on average – one point higher than Trump had against Biden.
Joe Biden’s decision to stand down for 2024 comes with ramifications for how the contest continues, from a potentially brokered convention to a whole new swath of polling to be examined. For Donald Trump, very little has really changed; he will still be campaigning against the Biden-Harris administration that has overseen record high inflation and illegal immigration. But perhaps the most notable takeaway from this clearly historic event is that the Democratic Party could be on a collision course with its own voter base and the issue of just how democratic it really is.
