After Joe Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris quickly became the presumptive Democratic nominee for 2024. Now she faces a significant dilemma in selecting her running mate. Choosing a running mate is a complex decision as it can potentially boost a ticket or hurt a ticket. Several names have been mentioned as being on her shortlist, and the two top contenders may also be the worst picks.
The importance of the running mate selection is up for significant debate. Some argue that a candidate’s running mate isn’t terribly important, while others say it can hurt or help. For example, in 2008, John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin helped him with Republicans but ultimately hurt him in the general election.
Kamala is now in a position where she has to weigh the pros and cons of potential running mates, and it’s no easy task. Why? Because the choice could impact the party's chances not only in the presidential race but also in key Senate seats and crucial states.
The two top names on her shortlist are: Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Each brings unique strengths to the table, but both also carry significant risks.
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Mark Kelly
Sen. Mark Kelly is an appealing choice for several reasons. His background as an astronaut and being a senator in a swing state make him a highly probable choice. But, it may not be the strategically best one. Why? Let me explain.
In the event that Harris wins the presidency, Kelly’s Senate seat would become vacant. While Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs would appoint a temporary replacement, the seat would be up for a special election in 2026, two years before Kelly’s term would end. This would force the Democrats to defend a critical Senate seat sooner than they would have otherwise, risking a potential loss in a swing state and potentially control of the U.S. Senate, depending on how the balance of power turns out after November.
If Harris loses, it opens up new problems for the Democrats.
Kelly has a reputation as a moderate, and while that could help Harris appeal to centrist voters, it wouldn't last long. An examination of his record proves he is a solid leftist. He has a lifetime score of 0% conservative, according to Heritage Action for America’s scorecard. This would be immediately exposed upon his selection and shatter the centrist image he’s somehow managed to maintain, and that could hurt him when he seeks reelection.
Josh Shapiro
The other top potential pick for Harris, Gov. Josh Shapiro, presents a different set of advantages but bigger challenges. As the popular governor of Pennsylvania, Shapiro could significantly bolster Harris’s appeal in the must-win state for Democrats.
His high approval ratings in the swing state undoubtedly make him a strong choice, but there’s just one major problem: Shapiro’s Jewish heritage would most certainly alienate the antisemitic and anti-Zionist wing of the Democratic Party. This would certainly cause internal divisions (and trigger chaos and riots at the upcoming Democratic National Convention) that Harris cannot afford in a tight race. Massive protests over the Israel-Hamas war are already planned for the Democrats' convention in Chicago next month. If Shapiro is on the ticket, the chaos and rioting could be even worse.
“It’s not just that he, like many Democrats, is an outspoken supporter of Israel—though he certainly is, having championed Israel’s war against Hamas consistently and without any apparent concern for Palestinian civilians,” explains David Klion at The New Republic. “Shapiro has, moreover, done far more than most Democrats to attack pro-Palestine antiwar demonstrators, in ways that call into question his basic commitment to First Amendment rights.”
The article goes into considerable detail about Shapiro’s record, which would make him poisonous to the Democratic Party ticket.
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In a race as consequential as this one, every decision counts. Harris's selection will have to weigh several factors. Upon examination, it's hard to see the upside in selecting Kelly or Shapiro.
